2012: Defining Year for the US
By S P SETH
The year 2012 will be, in so many ways, a defining time for the United States. It is the year of the presidential election that will show if the election as President of a black American in 2008 was simply an aberration. It is true that Barack Obama hasn’t performed well as President and could lose the election because of his lackluster record. But to lose against any of the present list of Republican contenders, none of them a stand out as a future president will, not insignificantly, be due to his racial identity. Which would mean that much of the self-congratulation many American liberals heaped on their country as having entered the post-racial phase of its history after Obama’s election might simply turn out to be false.
As it is, nearly 50 per cent of the prisoners in US jails are black, even though they constitute only about 13 percent of the population. In a review of some books on US’s racial divisions, Anthony Lewis writes in a recent issue of the New York Review of Books: “One analyst reckons that 32 per cent of black boys born in 2001 would spend part of their lives in prison, state or federal.”
The New Year is important for the US in another way. Which is: will the US be able to arrest its economic decline? Apart from its mountain of debt at about $15 trillion, about 100 per cent of its GDP, the consequences of its precarious economy in human terms are frightening. For instance, 25 million people are reportedly either unemployed or do not have enough work to get by, not to speak of those who have simply stopped looking for work in frustration. About 47 million people are living on food stamps. We are talking here of the world’s richest country. In a country of 300 million people, such statistics are staggering. And if this steep slide is not arrested and reversed, the US might be faced with serious social unrest. Already, the Occupy Wall Street movement is morphing into different categories of people’s protest.
On top of it, the country’s politics is becoming increasingly fractious. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives has brought any meaningful governance to a virtual halt. So much so that they brought the country to near bankruptcy by refusing to raise, till the last moment, the country’s debt ceiling. Even as the country is facing the worst economic crisis since the 1930’s depression, the political elites are refusing to face the reality of the US’ changing situation. Such denial is indeed an important reason why the country continues to be in such a state of disarray politically and economically. This mismatch between reality and rhetoric is a serious problem.
And it is also reflected in the US’ global policies. True, the US is still the strongest military power in the world. But as Iraq and Afghanistan have shown, all the military power in the world cannot win insurgencies without popular support of the local people on the ground. The shift to drone attacks against terrorist targets in Pakistan and elsewhere in the world might eliminate some top leaders, but the collateral damage in terms of civilian casualties is much greater. If the goal is to rally local people against terrorists and insurgents, the civilian casualties from drone attacks is certainly the wrong way to go about it.
The point is that the US is in a pretty difficult spot, despite its military prowess. Even after spending a trillion dollars on military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan (the total cost, to include all related expenses, is estimated at over $3 trillion), it is going nowhere. In Iraq, for instance, where the US has pulled out its troops, the country looks like descending into a sectarian civil war. And in Afghanistan, where it is proposing to pull out by 2014, Washington is now seeking a peaceful way out by making contacts with the Taliban. They, in turn, insist on a prior US military withdrawal for meaningful talks.
Still, Washington claims that both Iraq and Afghanistan have been worthwhile military enterprises—the first for bringing democracy in the country, and the second for destroying the al Qaeda bases, and introducing elements of stability and democracy. However, Iraq is now left to its own devises to deal with a turbulent internal situation. In Afghanistan, the process is still fluid and it is anybody’s guess if it will get better or worse as the US starts its withdrawal process to 2014.
Even as Iraq and Afghanistan are still suffering from the ravages of US military invasions, another hot spot is emerging with Iran now targeted for refusing to abandon its nuclear program. The US and its European allies are seeking to choke off Iran’s economic lifeline by targeting its oil exports. Countries seeking to import Iranian oil will face penalties. In effect, it will amount to an economic boycott of Iran to force it into abandoning its nuclear program. Tehran has responded by threatening to close off the Strait of Hormuz, thus blocking a vital waterway for a quarter of the world’s oil supplies. This will impact disastrously on global economy, already in a precarious situation.
The US, in turn, has made clear that its Navy will continue its task of ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. If both Iran and the US are serious about their intentions, then it doesn’t require a genius to work out that this could mean military confrontation between the two countries in the year of presidential elections in the United States. The year 2012 will thus be pivotal in regard to how the US and West will deal with Iran. Hopefully, they both are playing a game of bluff and brinkmanship. But these things have a way of getting out of control sometimes. The US has said a number of times that all the options to deal with Iran’s nuclear ambitions are on table.
Another issue that is seriously complicating the US relations with the Islamic world relates to the Palestinian question. The US has quashed the Palestinian quest for recognition of its statehood through the Security Council. Instead, it is forcing another round of talks this year between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Since Israel is refusing to stop further encroachments into the West Bank and Jerusalem through its settlement activities, there doesn’t seem any hope that these talks will go anywhere. It is just a diversion intended, probably, to scuttle any further movement of political unity between the Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank Palestinian authorities. In this year of presidential elections, the US political establishment of both the Democratic and Republican sides will be, even more than usual, seeking to please the country’s powerful Jewish lobby. Therefore, on this score, the US relations with the Muslim world are unlikely to make any headway.
The unfurling of a new US defense strategy to focus more on China’s rise in Asia-Pacific is likely to further complicate Sino-US relations this year. Even for a secure and assured superpower this is a long list of challenges in the New Year. But the US is no longer in that position, racked as it is with economic and political problems at home and abroad.
Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.
