Greece
and the European Union
S P
SETH
The recent elections in Greece that brought radical left Syriza
party into power under its youthful leader
Alexis Tsipras, 40, now Greece’s new Prime Minister, is creating political
vibrations in the European Union (EU), thus raising concerns about Eurozone
with a common currency for its 19 member states. Greece is a member of the
Eurozone, probably the sickest with its enormous debt. It has become a
laboratory of sorts to test the efficacy of a comprehensive austerity strategy
to cure its economic malaise. However, despite all the cost cutting measures
over last few years leading to huge job losses, cuts to health, social welfare
and related services, the country is nowhere near economic recovery or even showing
signs of it. Indeed, the unemployment rate is still hovering around 25 per
cent, with youth unemployment upward of 50 per cent.
When Greek people voted for the Syriza party, they were essentially
voting for hope that the new radical left outfit might miraculously bring about
an end to their economic misery by renegotiating the country’s debt, possibly
its write off by half. Which would mean significant reduction in interest
payments creating space for economic stimulation and a momentum for growth. But
subsequent negotiations with the troika of the European Commission, European
Central Bank and International Monetary Fund didn’t go anywhere. Germany,
Europe’s strongest economy, was adamant against any change to the bailout
package insisting on the old austerity regime and other member states rallied
behind it. Therefore, even though the existing bailout has been extended for
four months thus saving Greece from a possible default, there doesn’t appear to
have been any softening of terms. Whether there will be any modification in the
days to come seems very unlikely or, at the most, marginal. Indeed, the whole
deal could still fall through if the troika were not satisfied with the Greek
government’s follow up measures.
Greece’s new government disagrees fundamentally with the troika’s
prescription of putting Greece on economic diet to restore its ‘health’. Before the 2009 financial crisis Greece was
certainly living on borrowed money from EU banks that created an economic
bubble. Indeed, it was part of the global financial crisis that started with
the United States and then spread to Europe. The US and EU financial
architecture was like a pyramid scheme where dodgy financial instruments of all
sorts were circulating creating an illusion of prosperity with very little
transparency, and a widely shared belief that the economic merry go round had
acquired its own never ending momentum. But when the chips were called in and
there was not much cash in the kitty, unsurprisingly the financial dominoes
started to fall in the US and in Europe.
But when it came to devising an economic architecture to deal with
the financial meltdown and its disastrous impact on people’s lives, the United
States and Europe broadly followed two different approaches. In the United States,
the government used public funds to bailout some of the big banks and financial
institutions to keep the system working lest everything would come crashing. At
another level, billions of dollars were poured into stimulating the economy. At
the same time, the country’s Federal Reserve cut down the cash rate (at which
banks do transactions between them) to zero, and put even more money into the
economy by what came to be called quaintly as quantitative easing. In other
words, printing ever more money to oil the wheels of a sick economy. The result
of it all in the US has been patchy, though some sectors of the economy seem to
be showing positive results.
The EU, by and large, followed a conservative approach, forcing its
highly indebted member countries, with Greece on top of the list, to put their
economic house in order by massive economic retrenchment to bring down their
debt and budget deficit within certain limits over a period of time. And to
tide over the crisis Greece was given bailout packages to run the country under
broad troika supervision. In the process, the successive Greek governments were
told that, irrespective of the electoral verdict (s) against a severe austerity
regime, they were required to carry out the troika’s demands or else they might
not receive the necessary bailout to run the country. In other words, troika’s
dispensation was more important than any outcome of democratic election (s).
And the Greek politicians of almost all persuasions were forced into ignoring
the people’s verdict and their demand for a fairer economic adjustment regime,
because the alternative of leaving the Eurozone appeared too draconian with
virtually no access to international finance. The option of defaulting on its
debt would put Greece in an isolation ward, economically speaking, with
unpredictable and certainly unpleasant results.
The new government in Greece is keen to explore alternatives that
would restructure its debt radically to reduce repayment obligations but still
remain in the Eurozone. Greece badly needs to revive its economy through a
stimulation programme rather than an imposed austerity package that seems to be
making things worse. The question then was: Will the EU relent and write off a
substantial part of Greece’s debts? For this to happen Germany, as Eurozone’s
strongest economy with a large part of Greece’s debt owed to German banks,
would play a determining role. Any write off of these debts will require a
German government to bailout its own banks with its tax payers having to
ultimately foot the bill. Germany, backed by Netherlands and Finland,
particularly, as well as other Eurozone members, opted for toughness. And it
has prevailed so far with the new government in Greece forced into continuing
the old austerity regime or else be forced out of Eurozone.
That alternative would throw Greece into uncharted waters. But this
would also be damaging for European integration, slowly and painstakingly built
over several decades to foster European unity. Even though Europe’s political
integration as a pan-European entity has so far eluded the continent, it
certainly made considerable progress weaving together 19 European economies
into a common market with a common currency, until the global financial crisis
hit it with enormous debts of some of its members with Greece as a stand out
example. The recent elections in Greece have shown that its people do not like
being made an example, as they believe, for the collective sins of the
Eurozone. While Greece’s corrupt governments were on a borrowing binge, the
European banks couldn’t escape blame for irresponsible lending without any
questions asked. In other words, it takes two to tango. Without easy lending,
Greece wouldn’t be in the situation it is today.
Such finger pointing, however, is not helpful when there is need to
find a solution to ward off a serious crisis, which has the potential of
unraveling the EU. The four-month extension of the bailout, if carried out,
might buy time to accommodate Greece in such tough economic times. Greece was
hoping to rally support from some fellow member states, but that was not
forthcoming. Its government and the people, even under great economic distress,
do not want to quit Eurozone to tread their own solitary path to, what might
even be, a riskier course.
Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.
Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au