Will Mali be the next Afghanistan?

S P SETH

Mali is in the news these days. Why is that so? Because it is feared that it might be the next Afghanistan as the centre of global terrorism. According to the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, all of North Africa is becoming a “magnet” for jihadists from other countries and that the threat there now outweighed that from hotbeds in Afghanistan and Pakistan. And this fear led France to mount military operations in Mali to rid the country of extremist Islamist outfits believed to be al Qaeda inspired or linked.

Mali is a former French colony, and France believes it has a special responsibility for its former wards. Therefore when the Malian government---fearing that the al Qaeda groups might soon be in the capital, Bamako--- approached France, Paris readily obliged. France’s socialist President Francois Hollande decided to save Mali from being hijacked by the terrorists from the north of the country where the local Taureg tribesmen/rebels had earlier established control as part of a long struggle for a separate state.

The confusion and chaos in the country, following a military coup in Mali some time ago, had given the Taureg rebels their best chance to establish control in the north of the country but the al Qaeda outfit usurped power. Which raised fears about Mali becoming another hotspot of global terrorism. Indeed, the situation in northern Mali was a hodgepodge of ethnic separatism, Islamist militancy and terrorism operating in unison or at variance with each other for their respective ends.

Apparently, an al Qaeda group was able to establish its dominance running a virtual Islamist state in northern Mali. And these different strands of tribal rebels/Islamists/terrorists went on a military adventure heading towards the seat of the government in the capital, Bamako, bringing France into the fray to prevent the entire country falling into their hands.

The panic also spread into neighboring African countries and the rest of Europe when an al Qaeda outfit seized In Amenas gas plant in Algeria, holding a large number of foreigners and Algerians working on the plant as hostages, demanding that France stop its military intervention in Mali. When the Algerian military intervened to end the siege, a large number of hostages of different nationalities, including the al Qaeda operatives, were killed. Which raised the stakes.

The Algerian military operation came under criticism from some countries, having been undertaken without prior consultation and preparation resulting in the death of their citizens working at the plant. The attack on Algerian BP (mainly British) gas plant in Sahara brings out another facet of the Islamist militancy connection.

After the Algerian military cancelled the 1992 elections won by the Islamic Salvation Front, the country descended into a civil war lasting many years with thousands killed. The army finally prevailed, but its scars and memories are still fresh and it is now quite finished. The attack on the gas plant in the Sahara is also a continuation, in a way, of the unfinished business of the 1990s that raises its head now and then. That might not have been a major factor but all acts of terrorist violence are an aggregation of all the real and imagined wrongs.

The Algerian gas plant attack was a serious development to warrant a visit to that country by David Cameron, the first by a British prime minister over many decades. Cameron has offered the Algerian government help to beef up Algerian capabilities in intelligence and wide ranging security cooperation.

The entire region bordering Mali, to include Algeria, Niger, Mauritania and a few other African countries, has also been rocked by the overthrow of the Gaddafi government. Having been thwarted from playing a major role in the Arab world, Gaddafi, in his hey days, had sought to carve out an over-arching role in his African neighbourhood. Some of the African tribes were working as mercenaries in his army, Tuareg of northern Mali, for instance. With Gaddafi finished, they returned to their tribal region with weapons and arsenals from his armoury.

Since the western countries and the US that helped to overthrow Gaddafi did very little to secure his huge arsenals, all sorts of Arab and African groups helped themselves to these weapons and started roaming across porous borders to push their agendas which have included drug trafficking, human trafficking, kidnapping and ideologically-based and/or free lance terrorism. Islamist terrorists fund their operations from these activities.

Not surprising then that David Cameron also dropped in on the Libya to offer wide-ranging assistance to its government for more effective policing and security. But the problem is that the post-Gaddafi Libya has still not been able to function effectively with some of the old militias still operating autonomously. The government control over the country is still tenuous.

Therefore, Mali is part of a larger regional problem and France is now getting help from some of its European neighbours, like United Kingdom and Germany, that are sending specialist troops for training Malian troops. The United States might soon set up a drone base in the region to hunt the terrorists.

France is obviously very pleased with the speed of its successful military operations, with the Islamist militants retreating into the Sahara desert or into border hideouts of the neighboring countries. The recent visit to Mali of the French President Hollande was a joyous and celebratory occasion for the former colonial power, especially with many of the country’s people shown to be giving him a hero’s welcome for getting northern Mali rid of the al Qaeda and letting the Malians live their lives without the regimentation of Sharia law imposed on them.

But the ease with which the country has been rid of the Islamist militants in northern Mali seems a bit too easy and deceptive. It is easy for a country like France, with all its military power, to prevail in the short term, especially when the Islamist militants made it easier by retreating into the desert without giving a fight. They are a guerilla force and they will fight another day on their own terrain and terms through run away terrorist attacks like they did with the Algerian gas plant and/or ambushing military patrols and the likes. Already, some resistance by the terrorists is emerging in some areas.

During his visit President Hollande was keen to emphasize that it is the Malian troops, with French and European help, that will have to eventually secure the country. In this task, they will also have the assistance of African soldiers drawn from neighoburing countries. And they will receive financial assistance from rich countries.

These are still early days and mechanics of putting together a large African peace/expeditionary force, how it will be financed, equipped and structured, whether or not they will operate under the auspices of the United Nations are questions that will need to be resolved. And it is not going to be easy.

Will Mali turn out to be France’s Afghanistan? Only time will tell.

The signs, though, don’t seem propitious as even the regime in Bamako, the seat of the Malian government, seems under internal strain because of rivalries in the military.