Managing US-China relations

S P SETH

When the US whistleblower, Edward Snowden, was allowed by Hong Kong authorities to fly to Moscow, where he is seeking temporary asylum, it put a damper on US-China relations. Having revoked Snowden’s passport and made a formal request with Hong Kong for his extradition on spying charges, the US was hopeful that they would have their man to face the music back home where he was likely to be locked up for the rest of his life. Hong Kong, as part of China, apparently followed Beijing’s directions to be rid of him to avoid entanglement in an unseemly and long diplomatic and legal stoush with the US. Hong Kong authorities argued at the time that they couldn’t detain him, as the paper work from the US was deficient and incomplete. That is the benign explanation. The US didn’t buy this, contending that Beijing’s handling of the Snowden affair would damage US-China relations.

The management of US-China relations has been tricky with the rise of China. Beijing has long harboured the suspicion that the United States is trying to contain China. Indeed it has said this much now and then. The US is increasingly aware that China is emerging as the other superpower. The recent summit between President Xi Jinping and the US President Barack Obama in the informal surroundings of a presidential retreat in California was, in a sense, an acknowledgement of it. China and the US are engaged in a competing and contending relationship, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. This requires deft handling to avoid entanglement in a nasty conflict.

China would like to regard Asia-Pacific region as its own backyard, like the US has done with the Monroe Doctrine warning off external powers from its backyard in Western Hemisphere. China would like to do the same in its region. The US, with its Pacific coastline in California, Hawaii and its Pacific territories, regards itself as much a Pacific country as China. Besides, it has a string of military alliances with a number of regional countries and extensive trade and strategic interests.

Even as China has been seeking to establish its regional preeminence in the last decade or so, the US decided to checkmate it (formally) by Obama’s announcement in 2011, during an Australian visit, of his country’s “pivot” to Asia. Which would make Asia-Pacific region the primary focus of US power, with much of its naval deployment concentrated in the region. This announcement obviously rattled China.

In the last few years, Beijing has been engaged in a series of disputes with some of its neighbours over maritime boundaries in South China Sea and East China Sea. China strongly believes in the authenticity of its claims based on history. At the same time, it is also seeking to test the limits of the US commitment to the region and its allies. Undoubtedly, there is an element of brinkmanship, which, if not handled carefully, might lead to confrontation.

President Xi Jinping seems aware of this danger and during their recent summit in the US the two presidents sought to concentrate on how best to manage their difficult relationship. Even as regional territorial disputes between China and its neighbors have become a matter of serious concern, another issue cropped up to cause friction between the US and China. And this was Washington’s deep concern about cyber attacks from China, some even said to be emanating from within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The US alleges that these attacks on US companies have cost them billions of dollars worth of intellectual property theft. And they introduce a dangerous element of cyber warfare between the two countries.

The summit, therefore, sought to deal with managing US-China relations over regional maritime disputes and cyber hacking/espionage. And they reportedly declared their determination to keep these issues, as New York Times reported, “from descending into a Cold War mentality and to avoid the pitfalls of a rising power [China] confronting an established one.” This is the real problem. The recent history, in terms of the two world wars, is not reassuring on managing relations between an emerging superpower and an established one, especially when the emerging power (China, in this case) believes that the US is trying to limit its ‘legitimate’ sphere of influence.

Just after the US-China summit came the Snowden spy saga revealing that the US was also hacking into Chinese systems. This has seriously embarrassed and compromised US position accusing China of hacking into US economic and defense secrets. Not surprisingly, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said, obviously with some glee, that, “I would like to advise these people [US officials] to hold up a mirror, reflect and take care of their own situation first.” At the same time by not getting entangled in the Snowden affair China has acted smartly. Of course, it has displeased the US and might further complicate US-China relations, so soon after an apparently successful summit between their leaders.

There was one positive outcome of the summit to please the US especially. And that was about North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.  According to the US media reporting on the subject, “US and Chinese officials appear to be finally on the same page on how to contain a nuclear North Korea”, including using China’s economic leverage and keeping the young North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, on the outer until he fell in line. It is clear that Pyongyang is already feeling the heat from China. A recent visit to China of a high-level North Korean emissary didn’t get much traction. Apparently, he was told that Pyongyang should lower the temperature and resume nuclear talks. And North Korea has been making overtures to South Korea and the US. The recent visit to China of the South Korean President Park Geun-hye and high level talks with the top Chinese leadership was another signal to Pyongyang of Beijing’s displeasure. China and South Korea are both agreed on denuclearization of Korea (North Korea).

This is a positive development as far as it goes. But if regional disputes flare up, and with US committed to its regional allies, China might not push North Korea too much into the abyss because it remains a useful strategic buffer against the United States.

In a nutshell, the recent US-China summit was a useful development though marred by the subsequent Snowden affair. But Joseph Nye, the Harvard political scientist and an old hand on US-China affairs, was way off the mark when he reportedly described the summit as “…the most important meeting between an American president and a Chinese leader in 40 years since Nixon and Mao.” 

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au