Ukraine: the politics of a plane disaster

S P SETH

One would expect that the horrible tragedy in which 298 people died, when the Malaysian airline plane was brought down over eastern Ukraine, would create a spontaneous outpouring of sympathy and compassion for the families of those so tragically cut down. But such is the primacy of politics that, depending on which side you are on, the entire thrust appears to be how best to blame the opposite side. As far as one can see, and hopefully that would hold, there is no suggestion that the civilian plane and its passengers were deliberately targeted. Whoever and from wherever in Ukraine the missile was fired, the civilian plane was an unintended target.

There are two competing narratives, with the US and its allies’ making the most running as they control much of the international media. According to this narrative, a missile fired by Ukrainian separatists, operating in eastern Ukraine, brought down the Malaysian plane. And that the missile in question was supplied by Russia and, possibly, operated by Russian trained personnel or even Russian nationals operating as separatists. Therefore, Russia is the real villain, with or without its direct involvement, because of its support and encouragement of separatism, which created the conditions for such a tragedy. The UN Security Council resolution, calling for an independent investigation of the “downing” of the Malaysia plane, would hopefully throw light on this, though the investigation is hampered because of the unsettled situation in the region.

The argument goes that since the plane tragedy is a byproduct of Russia’s involvement in separatism in eastern Ukraine, Russia must not only dissociate from the Ukrainian issue but also help Kiev put together the sundered country by prevailing on Russian-speaking Ukrainians to lay down their arms. In this narrative, the real issue is Ukraine’s unity threatened with Moscow’s intervention on behalf of the rebels. And the plane tragedy unfortunately is a convenient political tactic to pile up more pressure on Moscow. In the event that Russia is not complying, the US and European Union have imposed further sanctions intended to hurt its economy. The death of 298 passengers, on its own, is a terrible disaster. But by making it a political football, it tends to cheapen us all. A letter-writer in the Sydney Morning Herald highlighted the cheap political scoring going on when he pointed out, “But when the American ship USS Vincennes shot down an Iran Air A300 in the Persian Gulf in 1988, the 290 civilian passengers killed were largely Iranians.” The correspondent John Clark added, “I cannot remember the Western world making very much of a fuss about this tragedy.”

The competing Russian narrative, of course, denies any role in the whole plane saga and/or the Ukraine’s political crisis. They blame Kiev for trying to impose a military solution to the country’s crisis by sending in troops and air force to crush the separatist rebellion in the country’s eastern region, rather than seeking a political solution through dialogue. And there is a suggestion that this might have caused a stray missile from the government side to hit the Malaysian plane, though there is no proof so far that Kiev or, for that matter, the separatists were responsible for the tragedy. The west blames Russia for fomenting, encouraging and aiding separatists in eastern Ukraine thus creating a situation conducive to such a tragedy. Moscow similarly blames the US for having, in the first place, encouraged a coup to bring down the duly elected Ukrainian regime, followed by elections in which almost half the country in the east and south didn’t participate. In other words, the present Ukrainian government, in the wake of the “coup” and following the less than credible elections, has problems of legitimacy.

Moscow wants a political dialogue between Kiev and the separatists. The plane disaster and the international outrage over it has only emboldened Kiev to push with its military solution through sending in tanks, troops and air force to impose unification. This has sent civilian population fleeing across the border into Russia that might bring it into the conflict directly or indirectly. Which, in turn, is likely to bring in the US and its European allies to impose more economic sanctions and even some sort of military involvement. Russia, on its part, has retaliated with its own economic sanctions on the west by imposing a wide-ranging ban on food imports from these countries.  Where will all this end up is anybody’s guess?

Even though the international investigation into the downing of the Malaysian flight has still to come to any conclusion, if that were possible in the circumstances, the US and its European allies have already judged that Russia and Ukrainian separatists were to blame. They have thus taken on themselves the role of the prosecutor, the judge and the jury. In this way Russia is being painted as a pariah state, unless it were to dissociate from the rebels. Better still, it should help Kiev to put down the rebellion in the east. The US and its allies sense that Moscow is on the defensive and if the political and economic pressure is maintained, it might wilt. And that, in due course of time, Ukraine will be coopted politically, economically and militarily into the European Union and, eventually NATO, thus completing Russia’s encirclement and dashing Putin’s vision of recreating a competing version of a new/old power centre.

Will it be that easy for the US and its allies to humiliate Russia once again, after the collapse of the Soviet Union? They obviously think that it will, if the pressure is maintained. The basic strategy is to deny Russia access to western capital markets through a graduated process of economic sanctions on Russian banks, energy companies and other economic enterprises. Until recently, the key European countries, Germany and France in particular, weren’t as enthusiastic about this blanket US strategy, as they have considerable stakes in trade and investments with Russia. How will Moscow deal with such concerted pressure against the backdrop of the moral opprobrium, deserved or not, of the Malaysian plane disaster? So far, Moscow has been dealing with it by toning down its support for the rebels, although how far this will last is difficult to predict with the Kiev forces making significant gains against the separatists? At the same time, the US and Europe will press home their political advantage to make Ukraine into a frontline state of the EU and, later, of NATO. How these competing games will eventually play out will remain to be seen?

Note: This article first appeared in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au