Myanmar enters uncharted waters

S P SETH

Myanmar (Burma) has lived in a time warp since the 1962 military coup. It was only in 2010 that the country’s much loved leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, was released from house arrest by the country’s military-backed civilian government to start a limited experiment in letting people breathe by releasing some political prisoners, easing media restrictions and so on. Which has led to a limited revival of economic investment and a growing tourism sector.

Even as the military-backed government eased things, they were hoping to coopt Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) into a political partnership of sorts where the army would have the last word. Probably anticipating or preparing for the changes, the military had devised a new constitution in 2008 with reservation of a quarter of the seats in the national parliament for them, and control of key ministerial portfolios, like defence and home affairs. At the same time, Suu Kyi, who had gained international recognition and fame with the conferring of the Noble Peace Prize in 1991, was barred under the constitution from the highest office in the country, if she were ever elected, because her late husband was and her sons are foreign (British) citizens. In other words, the military junta and its civilian political face, the government, more or less would have everything under control. The recent elections, though, have given the military a severe jolt, despite its best/worst efforts to derail the Suu Kyi-led NLD electoral juggernaut.

Knowing that Suu Kyi was universally popular, the government apparently encouraged ultra-nationalist Association for Protection of Race and Religion (Ma Ba Tha), led by extreme Buddhist elements, to go on rampage against the country’s Muslim Rohingya population branding them as non-citizens. They prevailed on the parliament to pass discriminatory laws to disenfranchise them. The political atmosphere was so poisoned that Suu Kyi, the human rights campaigner as she was known, didn’t want to appear sympathetic to the plight of the country’s 1.3 million Rohingya, about 5 per cent of the total population.

Her foreign connection due to her marriage with a British citizen (now deceased) and her two British born sons was another convenient handle for her political opponents to further muddy the political climate. A pamphlet doing the rounds, according to press reports, warned that if Suu Kyi were to seize power in the elections, the people of Myanmar will once again come under British rule, and that “people with moustaches” (Muslims, apparently) will decimate the country’s religion (Buddhism) and its followers.

One might quibble whether the country’s military-backed regime was behind it or not, but all the violence against the Rohingya, as well as Suu Kyi’s constitutional exclusion from the highest office in the country, certainly has the imprint of the ruling clique. But mercifully, this doesn’t seem to have affected the election outcome, with Suu Kyi’s NLD reportedly winning around 80 per cent vote. The ruling clique has conceded defeat and has indicated that they will respect people’s wishes, but there are likely to be serious hurdles. First, as earlier noticed, the military-drafted constitution prevents Suu Kyi from becoming president because her sons are British (foreign) citizens. Second, even if the constitution were amended---a big if, with the army guaranteed 25 per cent parliamentary representation and their capacity to force or lure more members-- it would be a fairly long process after the new parliament meets early next year.

Suu Kyi’s publicly announced solution, before the election, was to declare that in the event of NLD’s victory, she would simply act above presidency. In other words, she will simply ignore the relevant constitutional provision and be the real president. This predictably brought criticism from the army-backed government. Therefore, unless the junta resolves this inbuilt contradiction between its constitution and the popularly elected NLD, Myanmar could return to the 1990 when NLD’s electoral victory was nullified and the junta continued its dictatorship.

That might not be possible, though, because much has changed since then, with people of the country much more politically awakened. At the same time, recent changes, however limited, to give the country’s governance a civilian face and its relative opening up internally and in its relations with the world, has created a certain self-generated momentum that might be difficult to turn back. In the circumstances, with overwhelming popular support for the NLD, the generals and the army-backed government might be willing to do a political deal that will protect its interests and privileges and, at the same time, have an effective role in governance by nominating some key cabinet positions, like defence and home portfolios.

But will that be possible? Where Myanmar is concerned, there are no guidelines about the trajectory that the country might follow. For over fifty years it has been a military dictatorship and the 1990 experiment of holding elections only led to its annulment, as the military didn’t want to make way for the popularly-elected NLD, led then as now by Suu Kyi. If that is any guide, then the junta might continue its present charade of a civilian government or, worse still, opt for naked military dictatorship. But as earlier discussed, that might no longer be a valid option.

However, the military are and have been for many decades the only functioning institution in the country, and their effective control over all aspects of the country’s affairs is near total. The incoming popularly elected government will have to virtually start from scratch and it certainly won’t be able to do that by having army on its off side. As it is, the new civilian government, if formed, will start with high expectations and with so much on its hands. Leaving aside much that needs to be done to lift up the country’s economy and general governance, the entire gamut of working out peaceful accommodation with the country’s varied ethnic minorities cries out to be resolved. And the Rohingya situation, where nearly 5 per cent of the country’s Muslim population is virtually disenfranchised, is in need of urgent attention. And even to make a start to address all these issues will require national resolve, and the country’s army will need to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. And there is no crystal ball to predict how it will proceed. 

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.