North Korea and the nuclear question

S P SETH

North Korea’s recent missile test to put a satellite into the orbit as well as other demonstrations of success in weapons and missile testing, further heated up things in the Asia Pacific region. Its leader, Kim Jong-un, was endorsed as the country’s supremo during the ruling Workers Party congress, which met after 36 years. Not that it was needed but Kim wanted his power base and nuclear policy given another seal of approval. Not surprisingly, North Korea’s neighbours, South Korea and Japan, as well as the US, are alarmed about Pyongyang’s nuclear antics. Even though there is some skepticism about the claimed success of its nuclear/missile tests, there is no doubt that North Korea is serious about its nuclear ambitions to deter the US and its regional allies from destabilizing the regime and the country.

North Korea is a pariah state and its regime feels that the US and its allies, South Korea and Japan, are always up to mischief with a view to destabilize their country and overthrow the regime, with Kim Jong-un as its new leader. He has inherited it, more or less, from his father Kim Jong-Il who, in turn, was anointed successor by his father and the founder of the present state, Kim Il-sung. All the three successive generations of grandfather, father and son are reputed, in the myths built around them, as having done wonders for the kingdom. And one of these wonders is the development of nuclear capability to keep the country secure from its enemies by developing a nuclear deterrence .

The Korean peninsula is a divided region following the armistice agreement for cessation of hostilities after the Korean War in 1953. Technically, the two Koreas (North and South) are still in a state of war, and at times it seems it might actually restart. The annual US-South Korean joint military exercises are always viewed in Pyongyang as the precursor to a move in that direction. Which inevitably leads North Korea to ratchet up its nuclear rhetoric and testing. Pyongyang is never short of bombast in its vocabulary when reacting to its perceived enemies, such as South Korea, Japan and their ally, the United States. They have some ugly epithets for South Korea’s President Park Guen-hye calling her “a confrontational wicked woman” who lives on “the groin of her American boss.”

Pyongyang’s biggest worry is that it is really the US that is seeking to destabilize North Korea. South Korea is simply the puppet regime that plays its game and hence a traitor to the Korean nation. In other words, Kim Jung-un--- and his father and grandfather before him--- are the real saviors of the fatherland, that includes both North and South, and striving to unite the divided nation. And its nuclear deterrence is for the ‘heroic’ defence of the Korean peninsula.

In this sense the armistice agreement of 1953 that divided the Korean peninsula across the 38^th parallel is a temporary boundary until the country is reunited peacefully or otherwise. During the Korean War that started in 1950, ending in cessation of hostilities in 1953, the US and China ended up fighting on opposite sides, with China sending troops to push back the US-led advance as Beijing perceived it a threat to its security so soon after its communist regime had won the civil war. North Korea thus became a security buffer between the US-backed South Korea and China, which developed a strong stake in its existence.

With the US forces stationed in South Korea as part of their alliance, principally against an erratic North Korea and a resurgent China, the Korean peninsula has been a tinderbox for a long time. And ever since it started to acquire nuclear weapons and making much of it, even its principal supporter, China, is not happy about its nuclear program. Beijing is in broad agreement with the US and other critics of North Korea that it should get rid of its nuclear program. And for this it initiated a process of dialogue in Beijing between Pyongyang and other dialogue partners to include China, US, Russia, Japan and South Korea. But its on-off meetings didn’t make much, if any advance, with North Korea quitting in 2009.

The main sticking point, and it is no ordinary obstacle, is that the US and its allied dialogue partners want North Korea to freeze/dismantle its nuclear facilities/arsenal first before they talk about any specific commitment to help with or underwrite its economic and political future. But for North Korea, without its nuclear program, it will have no leverage for any kind of future. The US and its regional allies have hoped to force Pyongyang into submission through wide ranging sanctions, which are impacting severely on its people but simply making the regime even more obdurate.

However, it is believed that if only China will enforce the sanctions regime fully by cutting off oil and food supplies, Kim Jong-un regime will be forced into abandoning its nuclear program, thus removing a major threat to regional security. Even though China is against North Korea’s nuclear program and has further tightened its sanctions regime, it is not for cutting off all its options with Pyongyang and hence favours dialogue. China obviously has its own reasons. An important reason is that it doesn’t have much political leverage with Pyongyang, even more so after Kim Jong-un ascension. Indeed, Kim junior had his uncle executed, his supposed political mentor/regent in the transition period after his father’s death, as he was suspected of being close to Beijing. Apparently, Beijing is not happy with Kim Jong-un as he has still not received an invitation to visit China.

At the same time, without being able to control the course of events within North Korea, China is not for creating political instability on its border with all sorts of unpredictable results. For instance, if North Korea is destabilized and there is no reasonable prospect of an emerging political order, China might be faced with a flood of refugees from that country, which it is not keen to face in the midst of all its other problems.

As it is, with Pyongyang upping the ante with its nuclear and missile tests, South Korea is getting even more nervous and further strengthening its security ties with the US.  Seoul recently announced that it has decided to formally start talks with the US to install a missile defence shield, which is anathema to Beijing because of fears that it will become part of a regional strategy to contain China. Indeed, China and South Korea had been cozying up in the recent past with extensive trade relations to the point that Seoul, it seemed, might slip into the Chinese sphere over time. But with Pyongyang ratcheting up its nuclear program and alarming South Korea, it is once again looking to the US for ultimate protection. And with South China Sea and East China Sea already a flashpoint, the world could do without further complications arising out of North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests.

This article was first published in the Daily times.