North Korea and the nuclear challenge

S P SETH

North Korea recently conducted its fifth and most powerful atomic test so far. Coming in the wake of its missile tests, it might soon have the capability to mount nuclear warheads to reach its targets. Its official news agency proclaimed that the nuclear test was retaliation against “US-led hostile forces” and showed “the toughest will of the Korean people to get themselves always ready to retaliate against the enemies if they make provocation.” North Korea is believed to have about 20 bombs in its arsenal. It is a terribly insecure country, fearing that the US, with its allies South Korea and Japan, is out to get it. Pyongyang senses danger from periodic US/South Korean military exercises. It is around such times that North Korea is more belligerent, even conducting its nuclear and missile testing.

The US-South Korea exercises, and other military maneuvers, create panic in Pyongyang that it might be the real thing, which leads it to magnify its rhetoric. And when this leads to testing at times, the condemnation from the US, Japan, South Korea and Australia is swift with calls for even more sanctions. South Korea’s President condemned the latest test as “maniacal recklessness”, which doesn’t seem to bother Pyongyang.  And as for sanctions, they don’t seem to be having the desired effect. In any case, according to Professor Tadashi Kimiya of the University of Tokyo, a specialist in Korean issues, “Sanctions have already been imposed on almost everything possible, so the policy is at an impasse.”

Which brings us to China, the country supposed to have the most clout with Pyongyang. North Korea is overwhelmingly dependent on China for its food and fuel supplies and whatever trade relations it has. It is annoying for the US and other countries, that are resolutely opposed to Pyongyang’s nuclear program, that China is not doing all it should to rein in its neighbour and ally; even more so when Beijing is also critical of its nuclear obsession. It duly criticized the recent test, urging Pyongyang to refrain from worsening the situation. Indeed, North Korea’s test created some panic on their border, when China reportedly began emergency radiation monitoring on its side.

Considering that North Korea is so heavily dependent for its essential food and fuel supplies from China, it can certainly make things a lot more difficult and uncomfortable for the Kim Jong-un regime. They don’t seem to like Kim much there. He hasn’t so far received any invitation to visit China. But North Korea is a very tightly controlled regime, with very little scope or opportunity for political manipulation, including for China. The Kim regime, starting with his grandfather who founded the dynasty, has very little patience or tolerance for internal dissent. A mere suspicion of it can land people in gulag/execution. The young Kim Jong-un, the present ruler, is said to be even more trigger happy that his father and grandfather before him. For instance, he started with the execution of his uncle, who supposedly was to act as his mentor/regent during the political transition after his father died. Apparently, the uncle also had contacts--nothing malicious as far as is known-- on the Chinese side and all this seemed enough to bring about his execution. In other words, there is no China lobby or any other lobby in North Korea. It is Kim Jong-un or the firing squad.

It is not surprising that in this seemingly hermetically sealed kingdom, China’s capacity to engineer political change is very limited. They sure can create havoc by limiting essential supplies but this can be counter-productive in more than one way. First, it will create chaos without a functioning government. Second, the resultant chaos and anarchy will send many people in China’ direction as refugees, thus destabilizing its border regions. Third, the ensuing chaos will likely create political space eventually for a democratic and economically successful alternative like the neighbouring South Korea. It is worth noting that Korea is a divided entity with both sides committed to its reunification. And China would be loath to see reunification under US-allied South Korea. For all these reasons, China would hate to see North Korea’s Kim Jong-un regime tumble, creating trouble and uncertainty on its border.

But, at the same time, it is against Pyongyang’s finger on the nuclear trigger. For Beijing, the only way seems to be the resumption of talks on the nuclear question to find a peaceful solution. The talks, earlier initiated by Beijing, didn’t go anywhere. And, as things stand, they are unlikely to make much headway, even with new diplomatic initiative, because there is not much scope for flexibility on either side. Those opposed to North’s nuclear program, like the US, Japan and South Korea, would like it to basically abandon it before it qualifies for economic aid, trade and investment, as well as political and military security. In other words, the price for international respectability and security is to get rid of its nuclear weapons and facilities and virtually start all over again.

From Pyongyang’s viewpoint, though, once it has given up its nuclear option the Kim regime might as well commit hara-kiri. Its nuclear deterrence, in its view, is all that stands between its survival and extinction. While critical of North Korea’s nuclear program, China seems to believe that the regime is unlikely to give up its nuclear option. And the more it comes under pressure, the greater its need to envelope itself with the nuclear flag. Pyongyang probably draws some lessons from the fall of the Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi regimes in Iraq and Libya respectively, where they might not have been so vulnerable with a nuclear option. And it probably considers Iran’s survival too due to its work on nuclear research and technology.

North Korea tends to renew its paranoia/fear every time the US and South Korea conduct military exercises. The presence of US troops and weapons only magnifies the paranoia. The so-called de-militarized zone between the two Koreas is a live wire situation, with both sides seemingly all set for a showdown. And lately the situation has been further complicated as South Korea has reportedly agreed to station a US missile defence system on its territory as a security precaution against North’s nuclear brinkmanship. But this has angered Beijing, which regards it as part of the US policy of containing China and a security threat. North Korea’s nuclear issue keeps becoming more dangerous, with no easy prospect of resolution.    

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au