US bluster is China’s gain

S P SETH

The US’ long term allies are bewildered about the direction and future of their relationship with the world’s (still) most powerful country. Take, for instance, Australia, which has stood loyally by the United States for a century, forging even stronger ties during WW11 and sealing it subsequently with the Australia, New Zealand, US (ANZUS) alliance. It fought alongside the US in Korean and Vietnam wars, and is part of the US-led coalition in wars in the Middle East. You name it and Australia is there by the US side.

And it is the site of some very important US intelligence gathering electronic stations, which serve as the eyes and ears of its military machine against its enemies—the Soviet Union being the most important during the long Cold War years and so it goes. And it is also hosting US troops in rotation in its north and there is some talk of permanent US bases.

It is important here to point out that Australia’s loyalty has been largely self-serving for reasons of its own perceived insecurity. Having been, more or less, abandoned by Britain during WW11, mostly preoccupied with the European theatre of the war, it was the US that found in Australia a very useful and important part of its war with Japan in the Pacific theatre.

And when the US decided to grant Japan autonomy, essentially under US supervision and control, Australia wasn’t too happy about it against the backdrop of Japan’s war record; and to assure both Australia and New Zealand of America’s protective role, it signed the ANZUS treaty. Originally designed against possible Japanese national revival, it subsequently became a larger and all-purpose alliance.

With China now emerging as a security threat with its activities in the South China Sea, Australia’s role as US ally is all the more relevant. And what sort role it will be is the subject of discussion here in Australia, especially in the new Trump era.

Australia has a security complex about its Asian neighborhood, being the only predominantly European/white country in the region. Its white Australia policy was an expression of it, with fear of being swamped by Asian immigrants, particularly from China. And now that China is so powerful and potentially threatening, Australia’s security alliance with the United States is regarded as even more important.

At the same time, China has also emerged as Australia’s biggest trading partner, with Australian commodity exports an important mainstay of its economy. Therefore, it is trying to tread a delicate balance between its security tied to the US alliance and its trade interests tied to China’ growing economic power. And when Trump talks off-script on foreign and security affairs, it creates a bit of shudder here in the political establishment.

A case in point recently, unrelated to China, was the way Trump hung up on a telephone conversation with the Australian Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, cutting it reportedly to 25 minutes from the scheduled one hour.

It happened because Turnbull urged Trump to honour the agreement, signed with the Obama administration, requiring the US to take the bulk of boat refugees—so-called because they arrived in leaky boats-- that Australia had sub-contracted to its small neighbours for detention in camps.  And they happen to come from some of the Muslim countries banned under Trump’s executive order.

To Australia’ disgrace, these are refugees (about 2000 of them) Australia bribed its tiny neighbor Nauru, and Papua New Guinea, to put them in one of the most inhumane camps as a deterrence to other boat refugees contemplating heading to Australia. But that is another story.

Coming back to Trump’s snub to Prime Minister Turnbull, a loyal US ally, which created quite a stir in the Australian media with a sense of helplessness and foreboding. The US has been the security shield for Australia for as long as one can remember and for much of the region, even for those countries that are not formally part of the US alliance system.

Sensing that times are suiting China, even more so with Trump as President with emphasis on ‘America first’, Beijing seems to believe that, despite Australia’s long term security alliance with the US, in the medium and long term Canberra might not have any option but to develop closer relations with China. Interestingly, during a recent visit here the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, appeared quite relaxed about Australia’s security relations with the US.

As the Sydney Morning Herald’s international editor, Peter Hartcher, remarked that Wang abandoned his standard lecture critiquing the ANZUS alliance as “a relic of the Cold War.” And he said at a joint press conference with the Australian foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, that Australia “can continue to be an ally of the US, at the same time be a comprehensive strategic partner for China.”

The personal chemistry between the two foreign ministers was quite encouraging with Wang reportedly kissing Bishop on both cheeks after dinner, regarded as an unprecedented gesture. With Trump rejecting the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact and seeking renegotiation of its trade agreements, including with Australia, China is emerging as the champion of globalization. And Australia, as a trading nation, now finds itself on the Chinese side on this issue.

China is seeking to emerge as the leading proponent of globalization. President Xi Jingping strongly supported globalization at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, during a recent call with German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, said that, “China and Germany should send stable signals to the global markets and jointly safeguard the existing international system through trade and investment liberalization.”

This is against the backdrop of Trump’s threat to Germany that the US might impose a border tax on cars that BMW would export into the US from its planned new factory in Mexico. Trump wants Germany to buy US cars.

Germany is a long-standing NATO ally. Trump has said that NATO is now obsolete, though the message is being moderated linking it with increased defence spending by other NATO countries. And he is also not fond of European Union, having said that Brexit could be a “great thing”.

In the Pacific, Trump has already signed an order withdrawing the US from Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, thus creating a sense of exasperation among America’s friends and allies in the Asia-Pacific region.

If Trump continues his Twitter diplomacy of random policy pronouncements, China might emerge as the standard bearer of global stability, with such lower standards now permeating international polity.