American political theatre

S P SETH

But for its serious consequences, the political theatre in the United States about its budget and debt ceiling will make for a hilarious comedy. Indeed, the American political satirist, Jon Stewart, is already making good use of it in his Daily Show for the entertainment of his audience. But seriously, it is no comedy. And many people, within and outside the United States, do not really understand, why the US is in the state it is at this point of time? Simply put, it is a serious political tiff between the Democrats and Republicans, with the latter refusing to pass the budget in the House of Representatives, where they command majority; being opposed to funding the Affordable Health Care Act (Obamacare). This has caused a shutdown of parts of the government until there is some compromise or one side or the other capitulates. This budgetary crisis is mostly an internal affair of the United States, though it has consequences for the global economy when the world’s largest economy is paralyzed.

But the next stage of this political theatre is much more serious for the global economy, where growth, limited as it is, is rather tentative. This relates to the US debt ceiling that needs to be raised from $16.7 trillion by around mid-October. And if the Republicans are still holding the country to ransom, global markets might go into a spin with the US dollar depreciating, financial institutions holding US bonds and treasury notes seeking to off-load them, interest rates likely to rise and other unpredictable consequences. It is hoped, though, that even the Republicans won’t be that suicidal where the country’s future is at stake. And if not, what exactly is driving them to this fiscal cliff and beyond?

Instead of accepting gracefully their defeat twice in the presidential election in 2008 and 2012, this has made the Republican Party more obstinate, even to the point of punishing the country for electing Obama. And their majority in the House of Representatives enables them to indulge in this luxury. The rise of the extremist Tea Party within the Republican ranks--about 50 members (with about the same number under their influence) out of 233 of them-- has given them a veto of sorts. They are, by and large, impervious to the popular opinion because, with the gerrymandering (manipulating) of electoral districts in Republican states, their seats are quite safe with overwhelmingly white and conservative constituents. And the Tea Party Caucus is well funded by some of the richest business people in the United States, like the Koch brothers, for instance.

Indeed, the Tea Party is the mouthpiece of some of the most powerful lobbies in the United States, like the National Rifles Association which is against any control on the sale on guns, anti-immigration zealots and, in the case of Obamacare, the medical fraternity and their health insurance industry. And with such powerful patronage they are able to hold a gun to other Republicans, threatening them with contests in the primaries for nomination at the next election. Therefore, even though they are a minority caucus in their Party, they command real power. It is not for nothing that they have been dubbed the “suicide caucus”. No wonder the House Speaker Boehner is running scared of them.

The American political gridlock has increasingly come to be underpinned by a strong ideological divide. The Democrats and Republicans have been political rivals for a long time, the former espousing a liberal (American) version and the latter pushing the conservative agenda. But, generally, there was always some middle ground where they could hammer out a compromise. But that is increasingly becoming rare because of Republican revulsion to President Obama. And there are a number of reasons for this. First, many Republicans refused to accept him as a legitimate President. For most of his first term, some among them raised doubts if he was even American-born, thus questioning his legitimacy. Of course, these doubts were a convenient, though indirect way of expressing their racial prejudice. And this tends to inform and influence their politics.

The second reason is that Obama is, somehow, considered a socialist who seems determined to change the way Americans would like to live and do business. And his Affordable Health Care Act (Obamacare) is regarded as an example; what Mitt Romney, his Republican presidential contender, called that 47 per cent people living on state handouts. This kind of socialism, called European disease by some because of welfare provisions in those societies, is not welcome by Republicans for the United States. At another level, this kind of welfare society makes state   more powerful, telling people what to do and what not to do. For instance, the Obama’s administration’s advocacy of gun control laws to come to grips with the culture of violence and shootings in the US is regarded by many Republicans as an abridgment of the people’s right to defend themselves.

In other words, many Republicans seek to prevent ‘socialism’ from taking hold in the US and the consequent entrenchment and expansion of the Federal government power. And for this, a tighter control of the public purse and debt ceiling are their preferred method. They have already prevented Obama from going ahead with measures to mitigate environmental disaster, restrict use of guns, and to sort out the immigration mess of 11 million or more ‘illegal’, mostly Mexican, immigrants in the United States.

Obviously, at some point, sooner rather than later, the United States’ economic logjam would get sorted out because it is too big a risk for the United States and rest of the world. At the point of writing, it appears that the Republicans might agree to raise debt ceiling for six weeks in return for the government to negotiate to cut budget deficit. In the meantime, the government shutdown will continue until the budget is sorted out. Whatever the solution, it looks like it will be short term. It is becoming increasingly clear that the United States has structural problems, including its constitution, that need to be remedied. But will its political establishment across the spectrum rise to the occasion or simply recreate the same political theatre at regular intervals? Or has American “exceptionalism” run its course, with the US power slipping.