US-Iran rapprochement?

S P SETH

Will the US and Iran be able to restart where they broke off in 1979 when the Iranian revolution deposed the Shah? The break in their relations of over 30 years has only made things worse. And their problems over the years have come to be crystallized in the strong US opposition to Iran’s nuclear program. Overlaying this, and indeed reinforcing this, is Israel’s pathological distrust of the Iranian regime. Israel’s position is that Iran’s nuclear ‘weapons’ program is an existential threat for them because of its perceived commitment to destroy Israel. And for this they quote some of the rhetorical statements of the former Iranian president Ahmadjinejad. One of the first things President Hassan Rouhani did, as a goodwill gesture, was to send greetings to the Jews on Rosh Hashanah, Jewish new year. He also condemned the killings of the Jews as a “crime that the Nazis committed towards the Jews”.  This is a big change in tone and, even, content, from his predecessor.

                                                                                                                                                                                                       On the question of Iran’s nuclear program, President Rouhani’s administration  has started a dialogue with the United States and other permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany to address the concerns and apprehensions that Iran is engaged in a clandestine nuclear program to make an atomic bomb.  During his recent UN address, Rouhani addressed the nuclear question at two levels. First, he declared, “…Nuclear weapon and other weapons of mass destruction have no place in Iran’s security and defense doctrine, and contradict our fundamental religious and ethical convictions…” Second, while denying categorically that Iran had any nuclear (weapons) ambition, Rouhani however strongly asserted Iran’s “right to enrichment [of uranium] inside Iran and enjoyment of other related nuclear rights.” And to ignore this or demand its surrender, according to Rouhani, “… is, therefore, an illusion, and extremely unrealistic…”

In an article he recently penned for the Washington Post, he outlined why it was important for Iran to master nuclear technology. He said, “…To us, mastering the atomic fuel cycle and generating nuclear power is as much about diversifying energy resources as it is about who Iranians are as a nation, our demand for dignity and our consequent place in the world.” He has also said that Iran “is prepared to engage immediately in time-bound and result-oriented talks to build mutual confidence and removal of mutual uncertainties with full transparency.”

In his UN address, he avoided referring directly to Israel’s hostile role on the nuclear issue but alluded to this indirectly by cautioning the US leadership from “following the short-sighted interest of warmongering pressure groups…” Not surprisingly, though, Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel still holds the view that Rouhani is a “wolf in sheep’s clothing.” Israel is going to be even more upset as Rouhani has raised the issue that Israel, which has nuclear weapons but refuses to confirm or deny it, should join the non-proliferation treaty. This has so far been a non-issue in the nuclear proliferation debate because Israel somehow is believed to have a special dispensation, under US and western political protection, from transparency and accountability in this matter. 

Obama’s response to the new Iranian leadership’s diplomatic overtures has been cautiously optimistic. In his UN speech, for the first time an American president acknowledged, “… America’s role in overthrowing an Iranian government [in 1953] during the Cold War.” Such a symbolic gesture is helpful in creating the right atmospherics. While asserting that “… we are determined to prevent them [Iranians] from developing a nuclear weapon” President Obama also said that “…we respect the right of the Iranian people to access peaceful nuclear energy”, while meeting their “responsibilities under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the UN Security Council Resolutions.” At the same time, Obama noted that, “Meanwhile, [Iran’s] Supreme Leader has issued a fatwa against the development of nuclear weapons, and President Rouhani has just recently reiterated that the Islamic Republic will never develop a nuclear weapon.”

As part of the process of furthering their dialogue, the US secretary of State and the Iranian Foreign Minister have already met, and Iran and the UN Security Council permanent members (the US, Russia, China, UK and France) and Germany will soon be holding a dialogue on the nuclear question. Another encouraging development has been a telephonic conversation between Obama and Rouhani to break the ice, so to say, enveloping their relations since the 1979 Iranian revolution. For the first time, the dialogue on the nuclear question will be held against a backdrop of some positive exchanges. But that is no guarantee of real progress. According to Obama, “To succeed, conciliatory words will have to be matched [by Iran] by actions that are transparent and verifiable.”

Already, even symbolic diplomatic progress is creating some nervous reaction among countries committed to perpetual hostility to Iran. As New York Times colourfully reported (September 29), “ For Israel and Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, President Obama’s telephone call with President Hassan Rouhani of Iran on Friday was the geopolitical equivalent of discovering your best friend flirting with your main rival.” And it is not just the nuclear issue. To again quote New York Times’ report, “ But beyond that [the nuclear issue], the prospect of even a nonnuclear Iran—strengthened economically by the lifting of sanctions, and emboldened politically by renewed relations with Washington—is seen as a dire threat that could upend the dynamics in this volatile region.” But that is going too far, when the real conversation between Iran and the US and its allies on the nuclear question is yet to begin in earnest.

There are two issues here. While the Iranian President has categorically ruled out Iran’s ambition to develop a nuclear bomb, he is also firm that his country is determined to master the nuclear energy cycle. Any country doing that would have the technical capability to make a bomb, if it were to reach the level of enriching uranium to a very high level of 90 per cent. Iran doesn’t have that capability and neither does it claim to be working to that level. But it probably has up to 20 per cent capacity that is commensurate with peaceful medical and other uses. This is where transparency and verification by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) comes in.

If Iran is categorical about not making a bomb, as it is, it shouldn’t be a terribly difficult exercise to let in the IAEA inspectors for verification. But if the US and its allies were to insist on Iran altogether abandoning its uranium enrichment program for even peaceful uses, that is unlikely to happen.

The future direction of US-Iran dialogue will depend on if Israel would continue to have a veto on US decision-making in this matter. During his UN address and meeting with President Obama, Netanyahu made it clear that Israel would settle for nothing short of dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program. Otherwise, Israel might feel impelled to make a pre-emptive strike at some time on Iranian nuclear installations.

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au