Ukraine: a global flashpoint

S P SETH

Even though the self-proclaimed Islamic State has understandably created international headlines because of, among other things, the graphic images of the brutality of its perpetrators, the crisis in Ukraine has the potential of starting another big war.   The rhetoric emanating from there at times, one hopes it is no more than rhetoric, has been so over the top that it is quite frightening. For instance, President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine said only recently, “Today we’re talking about the fate of Ukraine [said to be under Russian attack]; tomorrow, it could be for all Europe.” To quote another European Union leader and NATO member, Dalia Grybauskaite, President of Lithuania: “We need to help Ukraine…to defend its territory and its people, and to help militarily… because today Ukraine is fighting a war on behalf of all Europe.” The other day, Ukraine’s prime minister said that Putin “is trying to take all of Ukraine. He wants to re-form the Soviet Union.” He added, “ NATO in this particular circumstance is the only vehicle to protect Ukraine.”

Jose Manuel Barrosso, president of the European Commission has said that, “we are in a very serious…dramatic situation… where we can reach the point of no return.” Did he mean that unless Moscow allowed Kiev to finish its task of crushing the separatists in east Ukraine, it might lead to a serious military confrontation between Russia and NATO? And it doesn’t just seem rhetoric when at the recent NATO meeting it was decided to create a rapid reaction force, with pre-positioned weaponry in member countries on Russia’s borders, to be put into action against a Russian attack. There was even loud talk of letting Ukraine become a NATO member, which mercifully has not materialized as yet. Such irresponsible talk of a potential war between Russia and NATO will be a catastrophe for the world. And when one factors in Russian President Putin’s warning earlier cautioning the US and Europe not to mess with his country that has a powerful nuclear arsenal, the consequent destruction and devastation that might follow is hard to imagine. Even at the level of sheer rhetoric, it is extremely dangerous as this has a way of creating a self-generating momentum to a “point of no return.”

No one is suggesting that Russian President Putin is any angel. But the kind of aggression let loose, until recently, by Kiev on its own people in the country’s eastern region is no solution to Ukraine’s internal crisis. By describing the rebels as terrorists to justify a full scale military onslaught is no way to reconcile a ruptured nation. Therefore, the only sensible way is for Kiev and the separatists in the eastern region to start negotiating seriously about how best to put their country together. And that will only be achievable by granting the country’s southeast region a reasonable degree of autonomy.

By any measure, the solution will eventually come through negotiations and not through war cries. The proposed creation of a NATO rapid reaction force, with pre-positioning of weapons and equipment in countries bordering Russia, is inviting trouble sooner or later. A mix of expanded sanctions against Russia, combined with the threat of rapid military response, is supposed to deter Russia from creating more instability on NATO borders. What if it doesn’t, as Moscow sees threat(s) to its security from NATO’s expansion? Will it mean war? That is dreadful to even think about.

Russia certainly will be economically hurt by western sanctions. In this respect, it is being treated like Iran. But it is no Iran. And if Iran has been able to withstand US-led sanctions since the eighties, it is likely that Russia would respond more robustly. There is even talk of making Ukraine a NATO member, formally or informally. And if that were to happen, it will be covered under NATO’s Article 5 inviting a military response to Russian attack on one of its member states. That could lead to war because Moscow has already been accused of aggression against Ukraine. From the deliberations at the recent NATO summit, despite President Petro Poroshenko’s attempt to drag in NATO into his internal conflict, he settled for ceasefire and negotiations with the rebels. Whether or not the ceasefire will last, and if it will be followed up with substantive talks leading to regional autonomy, would remain to be seen. And if not, it will be trouble all over again with the potential of a flare up between NATO and Russia.

The expansion of NATO right to the Russian borders, in contravention of an understanding against it at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, is at the root of much of the trouble. This has made Russia edgy while, at the same time, emboldening its neighbours to act tough under NATO protection. Moscow has decided to make a stand on Ukraine against its incorporation into NATO. And it seeks leverage for this by supporting substantial autonomy for eastern Ukraine. The western argument, on the other hand, is that Ukraine is a sovereign country and should have the right to choose its friends and allies. Moscow is not prepared to accept such logic, clearly seeing a strategic threat from NATO expansion to include Ukraine.

In an article in the Foreign Affairs journal titled “Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault”, Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago has argued that the western strategy “to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West” has sought to ignore realpolitik. Which is that: “great powers [Russia in this case] are always sensitive to potential threats near their home territory [and] states that ignore it, do so at their own peril.” The veteran US diplomat and policy maker, George Kennan, reportedly cautioned against the expansion of NATO to the Russian borders.  He said at the time, “I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies.” And he was quite prescient. Unless a sensible policy of backing off from deliberately provoking Russia is devised, there is no knowing where it might all end.

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au